OAS report warns of "very strong" El Niño impact on the Caribbean in 2027
The technical brief warns of rainfall reductions of up to 80 per cent in some areas, with the insular Caribbean facing drought and saltwater intrusion into aquifers.
WASHINGTON, United States. The Organization of American States (OAS) has warned that El Niño could have a "very strong" impact on Latin America and the Caribbean in 2027.
A report co-authored by the OAS, "El Niño 2026 to 2027: Outlook, Potential Impacts, and Anticipatory Action", says rainfall reductions of up to 80 per cent in some areas, and torrential rain leading to severe flooding and landslides in others, are expected across the region.
The brief was prepared by the OAS Department of Sustainable Development with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the International Research Center on El Niño (CIIFEN). It urges member states to strengthen prevention and preparedness during the final months of 2026.
Drought for the islands
The report says the insular Caribbean, the Central American Dry Corridor, the Andean and Caribbean regions of Colombia, Venezuela and the Amazon Basin could face severe drops in rainfall and intense droughts.
"In the insular Caribbean and coastal regions, acute rainfall deficits are projected to trigger marine intrusion into aquifers, contaminating freshwater supplies and prompting urban rationing," it says.
Drought would also affect water supply and hydroelectric generation in a region where more than 200 million people lack continuous water service and about half of electricity comes from hydropower. Rainfall scarcity in the Dry Corridor is projected to push between 500,000 and 750,000 people into acute food crisis.
Preparing now
"El Niño cannot be avoided, but a large part of its consequences can," said Andrés Sánchez, head of the Water Section at the OAS.
The report urges governments to strengthen early warning systems, plan alternative electricity sources, mobilise contingency funds, distribute drought-resistant seeds and reinforce health surveillance and vector control.
For island and hyper-arid territories, it recommends prioritising backup desalination, reducing water losses in distribution networks, inspecting alternative groundwater sources and monitoring aquifer recharge.
It says acting in the fourth quarter of 2026 will reduce the human and economic costs of an emergency in 2027, and stresses regional cooperation. "Coordination among countries and timely information sharing will be fundamental to anticipating impacts and building the hemisphere's response capacity," the report says.
